As I mentioned, my 2015 racing season is (probably) over. I completed the following:
Jan 11: Tilden Orienteering (BAOC)
Jan 31: Ordnance 100K
Feb 21: Montara Mountain 50K
March 7: Way Too Cool 50K
March 21: 4MPH Challenge
April 10-11: Zion 100M
May 2: MeOw! Marathons
June 6: Bone Tempest
June 20: SF Solstice 24 Hour
July 26: Big Basin 50K
Aug 1: Tushar 93K
Sep 12: Tahoe 200
Sep 19: IMTUF 100
Sep 25-26: The Bear 100
Most results are on Ultrasignup.com.
All in all a great year, since I set a 50K PR (Way Too Cool, finally going under 5 hours), a 100K PR, a 100-Mile PR (finally going under 24 hours, after 16 tries!) and winning my first race (the 4MPH Challenge). Granted, the 100-Mile PR was on a completely flat course during the fixed time 24 hour event, but I'm still pretty happy about it.
On to 2016!
April 1, Barkley Marathons (application, lottery Dec 25)
April 9, Lake Sonoma 50 (lottery Dec 1-10)
April 23, Zane Grey 50 (lottery, right now!)
June 25-26, Western States (lottery, Nov 7-14)
July 9, Capitol Reef 50/100 (100 held only if sufficient interest)
July 15-16, Hardrock 100 (lottery, entered)
August 6, Angeles Crest 100 (already signed up)
August 27(?), Waldo 100K (lottery)
September 24-25, Mogollon Monster
October 8(?), Euchre Bar Massacre
BAOC Orienteering Events
March 19, 4MPH Challenge
May 14, MeOw Marathons
Am I leaving anything out? A few local 50Ks will likely be thrown in for training.
I'm not looking to do as many races as I did this year. I'd like to do fewer races faster. I'd also like to do the Wonderland Trail, or maybe do a high route like Nolan's or something in the Winds. Also, I'm going to need to spend a lot of time in the Census Research Data Center using my restricted access geolocated NHIS data to get my research done.
Mostly I want to do Barkley and Hardrock. I am guessing that I will have a 16-18% chance of getting into Hardrock. It's hard to say, but I think the chances of getting into Barkley are actually a bit higher.
I actually want to not get into Western States, but lottery odds depends on consecutive years of applications, so I have to keep the streak alive.
I signed up for AC on a whim after Nano crushed it this year. I don't know why I'm not as into this race as many others. I think I just don't like Southern California (or running in 100 degree heat) very much. But I'm in, so I'm doing it.
I still think it was a bad idea to cancel Mogollon mid-race a couple years ago, but the course is pretty, so I'll give it another shot.
So maybe the expected outcome is a 50 in April, a 100 in July, a 100 in August, Euchre Bar, plus one or two more?