Wednesday, January 07, 2009


For the moment I'm telling myself that even if baseball doesn't really matter much to the economy, learning about performance after awards does say something useful about a general aspect of human behavior, so here's a table.

If I've done this right (big if) these are the ba, hr, slug, and obp for every MVP and Rookie of the Year winner, runner-up, and first and second runner-up since 1954 (these are the offensive awards that get voted on, and this is when they started recording the sac fly, and thus you can calculate obp). `stat'plusX is the given stat X years after the award, and `stat'changeX is the difference in the stat X years after the award. What do I take away from this? The winners are still better than the runners-up, and you see some convergence, which is basically mean reversion. Don't try and run very far with this preliminary result.

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