Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Awards

For the moment I'm telling myself that even if baseball doesn't really matter much to the economy, learning about performance after awards does say something useful about a general aspect of human behavior, so here's a table.

If I've done this right (big if) these are the ba, hr, slug, and obp for every MVP and Rookie of the Year winner, runner-up, and first and second runner-up since 1954 (these are the offensive awards that get voted on, and this is when they started recording the sac fly, and thus you can calculate obp). `stat'plusX is the given stat X years after the award, and `stat'changeX is the difference in the stat X years after the award. What do I take away from this? The winners are still better than the runners-up, and you see some convergence, which is basically mean reversion. Don't try and run very far with this preliminary result.

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